After Donald Trump managed to surpass Hillary Clinton in the polls in late May 2016, the tides have turned again. Latest data (July 4, 2016) shows the former secretary of state is 4.6% ahead of her republican competitor. At the same time, it has become a well known fact that Trump is clearly leading over Hillary Clinton when their social media statistics are compared. But does his declining popularity among voters also diminish his success on Twitter and Facebook? Let’s find out in our latest social media analysis of the US presidential elections with data from June 2016.

Who has the largest fan base?

When we look at the fan base of the two presumptive nominees, it is easy to see that Trump is leading by far. He accumulates 56.7% percent of their follower base on Twitter, while he can even manage to gather around 66.9% percent of the fans on Facebook. Comparing to the month before, Trump lost 1.9% of fans on Facebook and 0.3% of followers on Twitter to Clinton.

US Elections Fan Distribution

Who can win more people over every day?

According to our latest data, Hillary Clinton has been able to win 615,847 new fans on Facebook in June 2016, while Donald Trump gathered 588,104. The republican also performed worse than in May 2016. Things look a bit different on Twitter as the billionaire from New York managed to reach out to 851,450 new followers and accordingly 137,942 more than Hillary Clinton. Nonetheless this was a much smaller difference compared to the month before, so she got herself a bit closer to decreasing the gap between them. You are able to track these changes in our live data hub for the presidential elections – in real time.

US Elections Fan Distribution

Creating a dialogue: who gets the most interactions?

In a political campaign, communication with the voters is a crucial thing. In social media, it is vital to create a high level of interaction on your posts or tweets. This is the total number of comments, likes and shares on Facebook and the sum of all retweets, likes and replies on Twitter. Yet again, it is Trump who is leading over his democratic rival. The overall most successful Facebook post in terms of interactions was Trump’s statement on the attack on a gay club in Orlando. The tweet reaching the highest number of interactions in June 2016 was Clinton’s comment towards her rival to delete his account. It surpassed 1,000,000 interactions.

US Elections Fan Distribution
One of the most handy metrics for benchmarking success on social networks is the comparison between the number of posts of the given profiles versus their total interactions. With this you can see at a glance who is driving a more efficient campaign by reaching higher interactions with less posts. In this example Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are very close to each other regarding their number of posts. She posted 221 times and he posted 223 times on Facebook. The republican accumulated almost 20 million in June 2016, while the former First Lady gathered around 9 million interactions. Nevertheless, comparing to the numbers from the previous month, Clinton has been able to increase the interactions on her Facebook profile by more than 100%, while Trump only managed to achieve an increase of about less than 8%. Accordingly, it seems like the presumptive democratic candidate is now starting to catch up after starting a more direct confrontation with Trump.

US Elections Fan Distribution

Who is relying most on sponsored content?

Facebook is an advertising power house, not only companies but also politicians use this service to promote their agenda. This is why we have launched a state of the art machine learning process that helps detect sponsored content with an accuracy of 96%.  According to our sponsored post detection, Hillary Clinton has a share of around 40% in sponsored content while Donald Trump only comes to approximately 20%. So when comparing his social media performance to his competitor, it becomes even more visible that Trump has a good instinct on how to drive his online success as he is also relying less on sponsored content. However, the rates have increased for both candidates. The Clinton campaign thus seems to be more willing to spend additional resources on social media advertisement. In May the democratic candidate only came to a rate of 25% percent among all her Facebook posts. But Trump has also relied more on sponsored content, increasing his share by 8%.

US Elections Fan Distribution

Facebook vs. Twitter: which is the voter’s choice for dialogue?

To allocate financial resources efficiently in a campaign, it is also important to always think of which is the most preferred network among the audience and for your purpose. As shown below, the interaction rate for the combined data of both contestants is consistently higher on Facebook than on Twitter. Facebook might thus be the better choice in case you want to create more of a dialogue through interactions.

US Elections Fan Distribution

Clinton slowly catching up?

Donald Trump is a phenomenon. Being a real estate billionaire who had his own reality TV show for years, he has become very accustomed on how to play with the media. His huge success on social networks has thus always to be treated in relation to the fact that many people might primarily follow him for his controversial statements. At this point of time though his polls are clearly lagging behind Hillary Clinton. As we have shown, she is also slowly improving her social media stats if compared to our analysis from last month. Her direct attacks on Donald Trump and the higher share of sponsored content on her Facebook profile might be an indicator that she is now ramping up her social media presence. July 2016 will again lead to some interesting data with the national conventions of both parties coming up. For the last weeks, there have been some speculations that some republicans might plan a coup to dump Trump in Cleveland, which is however rather unlikely. Nevertheless will the national conventions be the kickoff to the final race for presidency and we will surely see some new surprises on social media.

US Election Social Live Stats